College Football Expansion

Some thoughts about college football

There's been a lot of talk lately about the Big 10 expanding their conference to 14 or even 16 teams.  Everybody who follows college football knows that the Big 10 has been trying to get Notre Dame to join the conference for years.  They would also like to have some of the Big East teams like Rutgers, Pitt or Syracuse.  But the 2 big names that have come up over the last couple weeks are Missouri and Nebraska. 

Really, both teams make sense.  Geographically its not a stretch, and both schools would meet the Big 10's stringent academic standards.  Personally, it wouldn't bother me to see Missouri leave for another conference.  And word is, if they are officially offered to join, they would bolt quicker than Mangino to a buffet line
Now I would hate to see Nebraska leave.  Call me traditional, but I really like the OU-Nebraska rivalry.  The Big 12 has already messed it up by not allowing the two to play every year.  Unless an agreement is made between the 2 schools, switching conferences could potentially destroy a rivalry that has produced some of the greatest games of the century.  Literally. 

But its no secret why a team would leave the Big 12 for the Big 10.  I'll give you a hint. 
It starts with -M- and ends with -ONEY-.  The Big 10 schools are LOADED with cash thanks to the Big 10 Network and revenue sharing.  The TV contract is good til about 2030 and is worth 2+ billion dollars.  Last year each team in the conference made about $22 million.  Compare that with Nebraska and Missouri who each made in the ballpark of $8 million.  Even the top earner in the Big 12, the golden Longhorns only earned about $10 million.  And they have arguably the best and most elaborate athletic department in the country.  Could you imagine what they would be like with $22 million a year and that kind of talent pool.  If Texas is the deep end of the talent pool, then the Big 10 is the kiddie pool.  I mean really, Minnesota ?  Michigan ? Indiana ?  Sure they have Ohio but compared to Texas, it needs arm floaties just to stay above water to compete.  And if you hadn't noticed, players from Texas are the ones filling up Big 12 rosters. 

The other big driver of Big 10 revenue is television.  With their own network and a stake in a more populous region, the Big 10 has more eyes watch their games than the Big 12.  We have Dallas/St. Louis/Kansas City as probably the largest TV markets in the area.  The Big 10 stretches to Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and even has plenty of fans in the New York and Boston areas. 

Honestly, the state of Texas is about the only thing keeping the Big 12 together at this point.  Over the last 10-15 years, Nebraska and Missouri (and the rest of the north) have been able to recruit Texas a lot more than teams outside of the conference.  If they do leave for the Big 10, they will slowly loose their connection to the kids from the south and turn in to one of the "slower" Big 10 teams.  Hey I don't know why the speed is typically in the south.  Maybe its the weather.  But good luck getting a lot of kids from Texas to get excited about the winters up there.  The Big 10 has had that problem for years. 

Now I really wrote all that so I could talk about this :  What if ?? 

What if the Big 10 manages to acquire a few teams and turn in to a Big 16 ?  They get Nebraska and Missouri.  They get Pitt and Rutgers and somehow coerce Notre Dame.  So there you have the new Big 16.  Pretty impressive really.  The Big 12 probably would have refilled with someone like TCU and BYU.   But if this situation arises, the biggest key to the continuation of the Big 12 is thet SEC.  The SEC will not just sit around while the Big 10 expands and becomes the "best" conference.  They'd have to keep up. 

Just for fun, let's imagine this.  The SEC has 12 teams right now.  They would need to add 4 to match the Big 16.  The Big 12 would basically dissolve and the 4 major south teams would go to the SEC.  Hypothetically, here's what the SEC conference might look like in, say 2020

West                              East
Arkansas                      Alabama
LSU                              Auburn
Ole Miss                        Florida
Miss St.                        Georgia
Oklahoma                     Kentucky
Oklahoma St                 South Carolina
Texas                           Tennessee
Texas A&M                   Vanderbilt (or even FSU or Miami)

I mean, holy crap!  How fun would that be?  As an OU (and college football) fan, I'd be pumped.  Depending on the year I'd get to see teams like LSU, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, etc... come to Norman.  Could you imagine the atmosphere ?  Think about the possible conference title games.  I'm not saying this is going to happen, but its fun to think about.  And for recruiting it would be huge.  It is notoriously difficult to pull the talent out of the state of Florida.  Playing on TV more often in these areas would be a giant opportunity for the Texas and Oklahoma schools to get that top tier talent every year. 

I've heard it could be more likely that the Big 12 teams up with the Pac 10 when the time comes for expansion, or even a TV network like the Big 10 has.  That could be just as interesting. 

Anyone have any other thoughts on this ?